Abstract
Based on the indicative modelling, the changes in Coulomb failure function (?CFS) suggest that the W-HV segment and the T-P segment could be stable in at least the future 300 years and 190 years respectively, for these periods should be needed to accumulate the stress released by the M 8.2 Wairarapa earthquake, assuming that there is no influence from other sources, the earthquake did not alter the failure threshold, and that failure is a fairly deterministic process. The results also show that the influence on the W-HV segment and T-P segment of the Wellington Fault caused by the 1855, M 8.2 Wairarapa earthquake is significant considering that the average fault rupture recurrence interval on the Wellington Fault is about 500-770 years. With our present understanding of the Wellington and Wairarapa faults, it can be concluded that the 1855 Wairarapa earthquake retarded earthquake occurrence on the W-HV segment and the T-P segment of the Wellington Fault. Thus the seismic hazard in the Wellington region may be over-estimated.
Highlights
There are many international examples that demonstrate that static stress changes, generated by large earthquakes, influence the timing and locations of subsequent earthquakes (Harris, 1998; Stein, 1999)
Horizontal displacement during the 1855 Wairarapa earthquake was dominant (Wellman, 1955). This suggests that the 1855 Wairarapa earthquake may have created a stress shadow on subparallel strike-slip faults with similar rakes in the Wellington region
The 6CFSs due to the occurrence of the 1855 Wairarapa earthquake were calculated on rectangular surfaces representing the different sections of the W-HV segment and T-P segment of the Wellington Fault of our interest, with centres at mid-seismogenic depths of 10 km
Summary
1994; Stein et al, 1994; Robinson and Benites, 1996; Deng and Sykes, 1997; McGinty and Darby, 2001). Horizontal displacement during the 1855 Wairarapa earthquake was dominant (Wellman, 1955) This suggests that the 1855 Wairarapa earthquake may have created a stress shadow on subparallel strike-slip faults with similar rakes in the Wellington region. As a consequence of oblique subduction of the Pacific plate beneath the Australian plate at 3⁄4 40 mm/yr at an azimuth of 265° at the latitude of Wellington, several active right-lateral strike-slip faults have developed in the Wellington region Lington region and generating catalogs of 200.000 years duration each, Robinson and Benites (1996) concluded that mutual inhibition mostly occurs between the subparallel strike-slip faults.
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