Possible Pre-Seismic Indications Prior to Strong Earthquakes That Occurred in Southeastern Mediterranean as Observed Simultaneously by Three VLF/LF Stations Installed in Athens (Greece)

Abstract

In this work, we present the analysis of VLF/LF sub-ionospheric propagation data to study anomalies possibly related to very recent strong (M > 5.5) earthquakes (EQs) that occurred in the southeastern Mediterranean in September–October 2021 and January 2022. We used the signal of one transmitter located at Negev in Israel (29.7 kHz) as received by three VLF/LF receivers (two of them using identical SW and HW) installed, at a close distance to each other, in Athens (Greece). This study employed multiple methods and techniques to analyze the reception amplitude data to identify any possible EQ-related anomalies. More specifically, first, we used both statistical and criticality analysis methods such as the “nighttime fluctuation method” (NFM), the “terminator time method” (TTM), and the “natural time” (NT) analysis method. These methods have satisfactorily been applied in the past in a series of other studies leading to interesting results. Moreover, we additionally used two more analysis techniques focusing on the signal’s amplitude characteristics. The first is the wavelet analysis of the nighttime part of the signal’s amplitude. It is based on the Morlet wavelet function, aiming to unveil the possible existence of atmospheric gravity waves (AGWs) before EQ. The second is named “long wavelength propagation capability” (LWPC), which simulates the amplitude of the signal and is based on the reflection parameters of ionosphere and by searching for increases or decreases of the electron density profile of the ionospheric D layer concerning the shifts of the minima of terminator times (TTs) in the diurnal variation of the signal. Finally, in this work, we summarize our findings and discuss possible “pre-”, “co-”, and “post-” seismic effects as observed from all the work.