Possible Influence of Thermal Regime Change on Social-Economic Conditions in Ukrainian Regions

Abstract

Purposes. Assessment of the expected spatiotemporal extreme manifestations of the thermal regime during the warm period and socio-economic risks from them in Ukraine. Methods. The assessment of possible changes in the regime of extreme temperature characteristics and their socio-economic consequences in different regions of Ukraine is based on two trajectories (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Studies of time changes of hot days in certain months (April-October), the sum of such days for these months and for the summer season from 2011 to 2050 were carried out for four stations in different regions of Ukraine, and research of spatial distribution of hot days and days with high temperature was made based on data from twenty-seven stations in the country. A hot day is the one when the maximum temperature exceeds 25 ºC, the day with a high temperature – when it exceeds 30 ºC. Social risk is a possibility of the population of a certain territory to be influenced by a dangerous or abnormal phenomenon in average throughout the year. Economic risk is the cumulative damage from a dangerous phenomenon in a given territory. It depends on social risk and the sum of the shares of gross domestic product per inhabitant for a period equal to the average duration of the phenomenon. For evaluation of economic risk, statements of the press service of the State statistics service according to data of "Interfax-Ukraine" were used. Results. There were given the dynamics of possible annual quantity of hot summer days in some cities of the country, features of the spatial distribution of the average number of hot days per year and the duration of periods with high temperature, as well as an assessment of the possible socio-economic consequences of climate temperature risk due to extreme manifestations of the thermal regime (maximum daily temperature above 30 ºC) for all regions of the country. Conclusions. The number of hot days and days with high temperatures will mainly increase in both scenarios. Therefore, all regions of the country will be more or less socially and economically vulnerable to the formation of periods of high temperatures. The largest economic losses from the maximum temperatures above 30 ºC can incur Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions. The maximum values of economic risks in these areas in the formation of positive extreme temperature periods are due to the highest population density compared to other regions of Ukraine.