Possible impacts of climate change on hydrologic cycle in Slovakia and results of observations in 1951–2007

Abstract

The hydrologic cycle in Slovakia is determined mainly by three basic components: precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (E) and runoff (R). The mean annual P total was 747 mm, E sum 476 mm and the mean R was 271 mm in Slovakia in 1951–1980 (E ≈ 0.65P and R ≈ 0.35P). T increase in 1.6°C and annual P decrease in 24 mm (3.1%) were detected in the 1881–2007 period. Regimes of potential and actual evapotranspiration, soil moisture and R have been changed mainly in the southern Slovakia. A physical model for the estimation of the energy balance equation components (total radiation balance and its components, potential and actual evapotranspiration, sensible heat flux) has been developed. Input data are the air temperature and humidity, cloudiness, the number of days with snow cover and precipitation, all measured in the network of 31 meteorological stations in Slovakia since 1951. The 20-year period 1988–2007 was by 0.9°C warmer than the normal period mean. The observed increase is at the upper limit of all climate change scenarios projected for Slovakia in 1991–2001. Annual P totals have not changed significantly, but substantial changes have been found in the P regime. The scenarios show significant changes in the hydrological cycle not only at river basins balance but also in case of soil water balance, mainly in the southern Slovakia.