Abstract
BackgroundVector-borne infectious diseases are a significant cause of human and animal mortality and morbidity. Modeling studies predict that changes in climate that accompany global warming will alter the transmission risk of many vector-borne infectious diseases in different parts of the world. Global warming will also raise sea levels, which will lead to an increase in saline and brackish water bodies in coastal areas. The potential impact of rising sea levels, as opposed to climate change, on the prevalence of vector-borne infectious diseases has hitherto been unrecognised.Presentation of the hypothesisMosquito species possessing salinity-tolerant larvae and pupae, and capable of transmitting arboviruses and parasites are found in many parts of the world. An expansion of brackish and saline water bodies in coastal areas, associated with rising sea levels, can increase densities of salinity-tolerant vector mosquitoes and lead to the adaptation of freshwater vectors to breed in brackish and saline waters. The breeding of non-mosquito vectors may also be influenced by salinity changes in coastal habitats. Higher vector densities can increase transmission of vector-borne infectious diseases in coastal localities, which can then spread to other areas.Testing the hypothesisThe demonstration of increases in vector populations and disease prevalence that is related to an expansion of brackish/saline water bodies in coastal areas will provide the necessary supportive evidence. However the implementation of specific vector and disease control measures to counter the threat will confound the expected findings.Implications of the hypothesisRising sea levels can act synergistically with climate change and then interact in a complex manner with other environmental and socio-economic factors to generate a greater potential for the transmission of vector-borne infectious diseases. The resulting health impacts are likely to be particularly significant in resource-poor countries in the tropics and semi-tropics. Some measures to meet this threat are outlined.
Highlights
Vector-borne infectious diseases are a significant cause of human and animal mortality and morbidity
Important vectors of human Vector-borne infectious diseases (VBD) are closely associated with water bodies
Schistosomiasis transmitted by snail vectors accounts for 207 million cases worldwide [4]
Summary
Vector-borne infectious diseases (VBD) are a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in humans and animals. This article proposes that an expansion of brackish and saline water bodies in coastal areas caused by rising sea levels can increase transmission of important VBD. It is difficult to predict a time-scale for the projected increased transmission risk of VBD since it will vary with the vector, pathogen and locality concerned It will probably parallel the expansion of coastal brackish/ saline water bodies and be influenced by changes in factors such as climate, agricultural practice, animal reservoirs of disease and human populations. Implications of the hypothesis Modeling of the expected climate change in England predicts a greater potential for endogenous transmission of malaria [48] This model did not consider the likely increased breeding of An. atroparvus in England resulting from rising sea levels causing an expansion of coastal marshland. This file contains summaries of case studies from different countries illustrating aspects of the hypothesis
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