Possible energy futures for Brazil and Latin America in conservative and stringent mitigation pathways up to 2050

Abstract

Latin America has a unique position to address climate change impacts due to its many mitigation opportunities and its growing economy. This paper applied two global and one regional integrated assessment models to assess the energy and emissions trends in Brazil and the rest of the Latin American region up to 2050 based on a set of scenarios consistent with current trends and with the 2°C global mitigation target. The models show that to achieve this target, deep CO2 emission reductions are needed. The power sector offers the greatest mitigation opportunities. The implementation of CCS, in combination with fossil fuels and bioenergy, and hydro, biomass and wind energy are identified in this study as the most promising low-carbon options for the region. The realistic implementation of these options will depend, however, on their capability to overcome the present technical, economic, environmental and social challenges. Besides, an appropriate policy framework to stimulate the transformation of the energy system is also important. Brazil is the first country in Latin America to adopt a national voluntary mitigation goal by law. However, the assessment of the effectiveness of this goal up to now becomes difficult due to the vague targets established.