Possible Changes in Industry in 2030: Toward a Disruption of the Sector Via Digital Platforms? Results of an Open Foresight Study

Abstract

The transformations generated by Industry 4.0 are interwoven with economic, social, and environmental developments. Yet this connection has only slightly been examined by the literature. Thus, the current research adopts a holistic view to understand the dynamics of the changes at play in Industry 4.0. The study presents the results of an open foresight study on the theme of “Uberization and Industry in 2030,” which was conducted with a working group of 22 members from academia and practice. Four scenarios and related action plans were produced. The results underline that uberization is not necessarily a process to be suffered by manufacturers, but it could be chosen or even co-constructed with different actors. These actors can choose (and not only endure) disruption by developing strategies, such as rethinking their business model and adapting their factors of production. The scenarios also indicate that the dynamics of uberization are contingent not only on technological developments, but also on industrial policy choices, changes in consumer behavior, and access to multiple funding sources of finance. The study also provides practical implications regarding the dynamics of collaboration between SMEs and large groups, on the one hand, and between manufacturing companies and platforms, on the other hand.