Abstract
The Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature has shown a significant positive trend over the past two centuries. On the basis of the well-known reconstructions of global climate from proxy data, the conclusion is made that the current warming has been unprecedented during at least the past two millennia. On the other hand, it was demonstrated in [6] that the existing statistical models strongly underestimate the low-frequency variability of global annual mean temperature, thus making the conclusion drawn above questionable. At present, the results of [6] are interpreted as evidence that the Mann reconstruction is invalid [1]. To our knowledge, however, it is too early to draw such conclusions. What is the cause of smoothing low-frequency variability? To what extent are various statistical models used for paleoclimate reconstruction that is subject to this effect? To answer these questions, numerical experiments are performed with data sets of annual mean surface temperature over the past millennium that are simulated with the ECHO-G coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.