Possible Biogeophysical Effects of Cultivated Land Conversion in Northeast China in 2010–2030

Haiming Yan,Tengteng Zhai,Juan Huang,Jinyan Zhan

doi:10.1155/2014/876730

Haiming Yan, Tengteng Zhai + Show 2 more

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https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/876730

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Abstract

There will be substantial cultivated land change in China as the society strives to meet the growing food demands, which will greatly influence the future climate. This study analyzed the possible biogeophysical effects of cultivated land change on the climate in Northeast China during 2010–2030 on the basis of simulation with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. Scenario analysis was first carried out on the possible changing trends of cultivated land. Then the climate effects of the cultivated land change were analyzed on the basis of the simulation with the WRF model. The simulation results indicate that the total cultivated land area in Northeast China will decrease during 2010–2030, mainly converting into urban and built-up land and forests due to the urbanization and governmental policies. Besides, the cultivated land change will lead to the increase of the sensible heat flux in the regions where a lot of cultivated land will change into urban and built-up land, while it will make the latent heat flux increase in the regions where the cultivated land will be mainly converted into forests through influencing the evapotranspiration. All these results can provide theoretical support for implementing the future land management in Northeast China.

Highlights

Human activities are widely recognized as one of the major contributors to climate change, through both combustion of fossil fuels and land use activities [1], with the land use/cover change (LUCC) considered as the major influencing factor [2]
The simulation results under the three scenarios suggest that the sensible heat flux will increase in the northern part of Great Khingan Mountains and Lesser Khingan Mountains, where a lot of cultivated land will change into urban and built-up land, while it will increase most slightly in Liaohe Plain, Liaodong Peninsula and southern part of Changbai Mountains, where the cultivated land will mainly change into forests or grassland and the decreased albedo will substantially increase the evaporative flux
The simulation results indicate that the land use change in Northeast China will be mainly characterized by the conversion from cultivated land into forests and urban and built-up land during 2010– 2030, with the total cultivated land area showing a decreasing trend, which will inevitably influence the regional climate

Summary

Introduction

Human activities are widely recognized as one of the major contributors to climate change, through both combustion of fossil fuels and land use activities [1], with the land use/cover change (LUCC) considered as the major influencing factor [2]. The biogeophysical mechanisms include the effects of changes in surface roughness and transpiration albedo and, for example, replacing forests with cultivated lands leads to an increase in the surface albedo [10] The biogeochemical mechanisms, such as the forest conversion, can lead to large direct emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere, which in turn modifies the Earth’s energy balance and influences the climate [11]. It is of great importance to analyze the interaction between the LUCC and climate change to understand the impacts of LUCC on the grain production in Northeast China, especially since the land resource is indispensable to most essential human activities and provides the basis for agricultural and forest production, recreation and settlement, and so forth. The potential biogeophysical effects of cultivated land change were analyzed on the basis of the scenario analysis on the land use change and simulation of climate change with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model

Data and Methodology

Results and Discussion

Conclusions