Possibility theory and its applications: a retrospective and prospective view

Abstract

This paper provides an overview of possibility theory, emphasizing its historical roots and its recent developments. Possibility theory lies at the crossroads between fuzzy sets, probability and nonmonotonic reasoning. Possibility theory can be cast either in an ordinal or in a numerical setting. Qualitative possibility theory is closely related to belief revision theory, and commonsense reasoning with exception-tainted knowledge in Artificial Intelligence. It has been axiomatically justified in a decision-theoretic framework in the style of Savage, thus providing a foundation for qualitative decision theory. Quantitative possibility theory is the simplest framework for statistical reasoning with imprecise probabilities. As such it has close connections with random set theory and confidence intervals, and can provide a tool for uncertainty propagation with limited statistical or subjective information.