Possibility of prediction of solar proton events

Abstract

The dynamic processes in the interplanetary space have been investigated on the basis of the time variations in the parameters of the cosmic-ray rigidity spectrum. It is established that the change in the electromagnetic characteristics of the heliosphere begins before the sporadic phenomena on the Sun. In particular, it is shown that the sporadic phenomena are preceded by generation of local polarization electric fields, a decrease in the magnetic field strength in small-scale heliospheric structures, and an increase in the potential difference between the pole and ecliptic plane. The use of these signs makes it possible to predict solar proton events with a lead time from several hours to several tens of hours with a high degree of confirmation.