Abstract
The objective of this study is to examine the possibilities of neighborhood evacuation within a district in the event of a large-scale flood in a low-lying area, through a case study of Shinden district in Tokyo. Shinden district is highly vulnerable to flooding because it is surrounded by two large rivers, namely, the Arakawa River and Sumida River. In a part of the district, however, there is a large-scale super levee area that is apparently used as a safe evacuation area. In conclusion, in the event that the Arakawa River in Shinden district is breached, the number of estimated potential evacuees at night exceeds the number of estimated night-time evacuees, and the number of estimated potential evacuees in the daytime exceeds the number of estimated daytime evacuees. Therefore, it is possible for people in an inundated area to evacuate to safe places in the neighborhood on the condition that an appropriate evacuation system is established, taking into consideration possible routes to the evacuation areas and the possibility of making use of private apartments or other private buildings as evacuation spaces. In particular, the super levee project has contributed to the creation of a large-scale neighborhood evacuation area.
Highlights
1.1 Evacuation in the event of a large-scale flood in TokyoThe eastern part of Tokyo, Japan, consists of a largescale, low-lying area where the mean ground level is lower than sea level (Figure 1)
The objective of this study is to examine the possibilities of neighborhood evacuation within a district in the event of a large-scale flood in a low-lying area, through a case study of Shinden district in Tokyo
In the event that the Arakawa River in Shinden district is breached, the number of estimated potential evacuees (11,280) at night exceeds the number of estimated night-time evacuees (3,187), and the number of estimated potential evacuees (11,610) in the daytime exceeds the number of estimated daytime evacuees (2,148) (Table 2)
Summary
The eastern part of Tokyo, Japan, consists of a largescale, low-lying area where the mean ground level is lower than sea level (Figure 1). The Cabinet Office pointed out that the evacuation methods described in the existing hazard map of each municipality in a low-lying area will not be effective in the case of a delay in evacuation caused by public transport congestion, or if the number of evacuees exceeds the capacity of each designated evacuation area [1]. Many residents do not heed evacuation advisories as they believe that the formal safe evacuation areas are in public facilities within the district such as elementary or junior high schools [2]; this is mainly because they are used as refuges when there is a largescale earthquake, even though they would be inundated in the event of a large-scale flood. Area below low tide sea level: 31.5km Area below high tide sea level: 124.3km Area below design tidal sea level: 254.6km
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