Poslovna analiza i predviđanje u funkciji optimizacije procesa upravljanja lancem snabdevanja u kompanijama Srbije

Abstract

Competition, technological innovations and the intensity of business changes are characteristics of modern-day business operations. Their complexity imposes demands for new policies and approaches in all business areas. In many companies, the procurement department as a business function has become a routine where they continue to maintain long-term business relationships with suppliers and other business partners. This type of policy is becoming unsustainable. The way for a company to survive is to focus on operational efficiency. While conducting the analysis of an oil industry company and its procurement department, we have set an economic model for sales forecasting and procurement plan. Development of computer technology and quantitative methods contributes to the quality of the supply chain. It also opens up new opportunities in business application, while requiring at the same time significant changes in business thinking patterns, especially considering the importance of information, their quantity and availability. In modern business, timely and accurate information and knowledge contained therein are becoming an important business resource and a platform for survival of the company. The aim of this paper is to create a new, i.e. added value, out of the existing information. By applying quantitative methods for business forecasting, we have optimised stock levels. By analysing monthly information on procurement, sales and stock quantities for a single product over a period of 5 years, we have compiled a procurement plan based on business forecasting. With adjusted optimisation we have created an opportunity to release the capital for other purposes and new investments. We achieved the company's goal, and avoided creating excess inventory and missed sales. In our business forecasting, we used Gretl statistical package for data analysis.