Position Shifting in Pursuit of Higher Office

Abstract

Theory: A divergent platform spatial model is used to explain whether United States House members shift their legislative voting record toward a state party position as they approach a bid for the United States Senate. Hypotheses: Any position shifting by candidates should be toward the state position and should begin well before the Senate race. There should be more movement toward the state position by candidates than by losing candidates and noncandidates. Methods: The average adjusted ADA score of United States Senators in the state and party is used to establish an estimate of a winning position for each party. The extent of position shifting is estimated through pooled time-series cross-section regressions for candidates and through individual regressions for each candidate, candidate, and noncandidate. Results: House members who run for the Senate begin to shift toward the state position 13 years prior to running. Contrary to conventional wisdom, members are as likely, if not more so, to shift from the center to the left or right as they are from the extremes toward the center. Moderate Democrats move to the left. Moderate Republicans move to the right. Candidates were more likely to shift than noncandidates, and winners more than losers.