Portions in portfolios: Understanding public preferences for electricity production using compositional survey data in the United States

Abstract

Alarming increases in average global temperatures caused by greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels have motivated efforts to transition energy production to clean energy – especially renewable energy sources like wind and solar. While nuclear energy has the potential to provide significant amounts of zero‑carbon, baseload energy it does not have the levels of public support that wind and solar energy do. Most research on energy production preferences examines public support for energy sources in isolation. This study improves upon the current state of this research by examining public preferences for energy sources in electricity production as a mix of the most common sources for the energy grid. Using data from a representative survey of over 2000 American adults, we explore variations in the preferred mix of energy sources for electricity production among the U.S. public. By utilizing compositional analytical techniques, we model trade-offs in electricity production for energy source preferences instead of isolated preferences for individual sources. As evidence of growing support for clean energy transitions, we find that fossil fuel energy makes up a relatively small proportion of the preferred energy mix for electricity production across all ideological groups, especially relative to its current production. We also find that beliefs and knowledge about climate change are strongly associated with a higher prevalence of renewable sources in the preferred electricity mix. Overall, our findings on electricity composition preferences suggest that respondents would like to see almost 30 % of electricity in the U.S. originate from solar energy over the next twenty years.