Portfolio selection of power generation projects considering the synergy of project and uncertainty of decision information

Abstract

Specifying which projects to be invested in under constraints can improve the investment efficiency of enterprise. The article studies on portfolio selection of power generation projects, considering the synergy between a pair of projects and the uncertainty of decision information. Firstly, objectives and constraints for generation power project portfolio are defined by economy, environment and society-three aspects. Synergies between each pair of projects are calculated in resource, management, technology and operation, and adopted into objective in a form of comprehensive synergy. In the process of model solution, fuzzy number is employed to describe the information of alternative projects to enhance the accuracy of decision. Linear reconstruction technique is introduced to equally transform the non-linear planning model into a linear 0–1 problem, reducing the difficulty of solving the model. Through a case study, the feasibility and operability of project portfolio selection (PPS) framework constructed in article are verified. The results show that comprehensive benefit of project portfolio considering the synergy is 8.999, which is significantly higher than the model without synergy, providing convincing support to decision makers. Further, the structure of solution indicates that the current investments in coal-fired power should not be stopped arbitrarily, and different types of power generation projects need to be developed in balance. The research can provide a reference in ideas and models to the investor in multi-project investment decision-making.