Abstract
AbstractThis paper examines the robustness of the Keynes‐Hicks backwardation hypothesis for futures markets in a model that admits diversification and inflation protection as speculative motives. It presents a criterion in terms of the correlation of futures price with anticipated consumption net of other asset holdings for the Keynes‐Hicks proposition to be true. The paper finds the effect of changes in net wealth and commodity demand on the risk premium, spread, open interest, and storage.
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