Abstract
Subject Political outlook. Significance Scheduled parliamentary elections take place on November 8. Opinion polls point to a slim victory for the opposition Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), the gap with the ruling Social Democratic Party (SDP) having narrowed. A shift in power does not herald any significant change in either the government's effectiveness or policy direction. Like its predecessor, an HDZ-led administration would be weak and beholden to an angry public's whims. Impacts HDZ's lead in the polling has fallen lately, but politics will turn nationalist whoever wins the election. Croatia is on a journey towards Hungarian-style economic nationalism and a more sceptical approach towards the EU. Support is likely to increase for Bosnian Croat attempts to form a third Bosnian entity, contributing to the steady collapse of BiH.
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