Populism's rise in post‐communist countries: Breaking electoral promises and incumbent left parties’ vote losses

Abstract

AbstractDo voters punish left‐wing parties that pursue neo‐liberal policies? We address the question in the context of post‐communist countries, where the left implemented significant and painful market‐oriented reforms. For the left, owning these reforms means backing away from its popular image and policy platform and plausibly generates two electorally consequential outcomes: a ‘brand dilution’ effect that weakens voters’ attachment to left parties and is magnified by the economic vulnerability of the left's core constituency; and an ‘expectations effect’ that increases demand for right‐wing politicians. Overall, the left should lose votes, particularly when voters can easily attribute responsibility for policies. Our analysis uses updated data on the vote shares for all parties and elections in post‐communist democracies from 1991 to 2010. We find support for the theory: Incumbent left‐wing parties of the chief executive are punished at the ballot box for moving to the right on economic policy. This, likely, comes from a ‘brand dilution’ effect, as we find that such vote losses feed the fortunes of non‐incumbent left‐wing and populist parties.