Populism and International Relations: (Un)predictability, personalisation, and the reinforcement of existing trends in world politics

Sandra Destradi,Johannes Plagemann

doi:10.1017/s0260210519000184

Abstract

AbstractAs populists have formed governments all over the world, it becomes imperative to study the consequences of the rise of populism for International Relations. Yet, systematic academic analyses of the international impact of populist government formation are still missing, and political commentators tend to draw conclusions from few cases of right-wing populism in the Global North. But populism – conceptualised as a ‘thin’ ideology based on anti-elitism and anti-pluralism – takes different shapes across world regions as populists combine it with different ‘thick’ ideologies. To reflect such diversity and gain more systematic insights into the global implications of populism, we focus on cases of populist government formation in the Global South. We find that populists in power are not, per se, more belligerent or less willing to engage globally than their non-populist predecessors. Factors like status seeking or a country's embeddedness in international institutions mitigate the impact of populism. Its most immediate effect concerns procedural aspects: foreign policymaking becomes more centralised and personalised – yet, not entirely unpredictable, given the importance of ‘thick’ ideologies espoused by populist parties and leaders. Rather than changing course entirely, populists in power reinforce existing trends, especially a tendency towards diversifying international partnerships.

Highlights

One of the most prominent developments in world politics in recent years has been the rise to power of populists around the world
If we look at instances of populist government formations beyond the West, we find that the degree to which populists oppose international institutions varies depending on how deeply their countries are already embedded in such institutions as well as on populists’ underlying ‘thick’ ideology
India’s UN peacekeeping troop contributions under Modi remained on levels comparable to those of the previous government, at least until 2017.88. When it comes to engagements in multilateral trade regimes, we see that the formation of populist governments leads to shifts that are, overall, in line with respective thick ideologies: Erdoğan, Modi, and Duterte showed an increased willingness to open their economies to global markets, while leftist Chávez staunchly opposed the establishment of a US-led Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA)

Summary

Introduction

One of the most prominent developments in world politics in recent years has been the rise to power of populists around the world. If we drew conclusions from US foreign policy under Trump, we would envisage a whole range of worrying consequences of populists’ ascent to power: a weakening of existing multilateral institutions; increasing failures in global public goods provision in crucial fields, from climate change mitigation to poverty reduction; a proliferation of international disputes due to an aggressive approach to international politics; and a rising unpredictability in world politics due to the populist leader’s erratic leadership style Such extrapolations from the case of Trump apparently find some confirmation in the foreign policies of populist governments in Europe – think of their scepticism vis-à-vis the European Union or of their policies on migration. Review of International Studiest 713 certainly becomes more centralised and personalised under populist leaders, strong ‘thick’ ideologies reduce their unpredictability and arbitrariness

Populism and IR

Centralisation and personalisation of foreign policymaking

Conclusion