Abstract
AimsTo quantify associations between the success of smoking quit attempts and factors that have varied throughout 2007–2018 at a population level.Designtime series analysis using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogeneous Input (ARIMAX) modelling.Setting and ParticipantsData were aggregated from 54 847 past‐year smokers taking part in the Smoking Toolkit Study which involves monthly repeated cross‐sectional household surveys of individuals aged 16+ in England.MeasurementsThe input series were: (1) attempts at smoking reduction using (a) e‐cigarettes and (b) nicotine replacement therapy (NRT); (2) use during a quit attempt of (a) e‐cigarettes, (b) NRT over‐the‐counter, (c) medication on prescription and (d) face‐to‐face behavioural support; (3) use of roll‐your‐own tobacco; (4) prevalence of (a) smoking and (b) non‐daily smoking; (5) tobacco control mass media expenditure; (6) expenditure on smoking; (7) smoker characteristics in the form of (a) high motivation to quit, (b) average age, (c) socio‐economic status and (d) cigarette consumption; (8) implementation of tobacco control policies; and (9) quit attempt rate.FindingsThe licensing of NRT for harm reduction was associated with a 0.641% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.073–1.209, P = 0.027] increase in the mean point prevalence of the success rate of quit attempts. For every 1% increase in the mean point prevalence of e‐cigarette use and use of prescription medication during a quit attempt, the mean point prevalence of successful quit attempts increased by 0.106% (95% CI = 0.011–0.201, P = 0.029) and 0.143% (95% CI = 0.009–0.279, P = 0.038), respectively. For every 1% increase in the mean expenditure on tobacco control mass media, the mean point prevalence of successful quit attempts increased by 0.046% (95% CI = 0.001–0.092, P = 0.046). Other associations were not statistically significant.ConclusionIn England between 2007 and 2018, licensing of nicotine replacement therapy for use in harm reduction, greater use of e‐cigarettes and prescription medications during a quit attempt and higher expenditure on tobacco control mass media were all associated with higher success rates of quit attempts.
Highlights
The age-standardized prevalence of tobacco smoking has decreased since the start of the 21st century from 26.9 to 20.2%, with a projected prevalence in 2025 of 15.5% [1]
We recently showed, using population time series data, that part of the increase in prevalence of quit success in England over recent years may have been a consequence of the rise in use of e-cigarettes during quit attempts [5]
16.20% of respondents reported a successful quit attempt, with an increase from approximately 14% between 2007 and 2011 to 18% thereafter
Summary
The age-standardized prevalence of tobacco smoking has decreased since the start of the 21st century from 26.9 to 20.2%, with a projected prevalence in 2025 of 15.5% [1]. England has comprehensive tobacco control and one of the lowest smoking prevalences in the world at approximately 14.4% [2,3]. The Government Tobacco Control Plan for England aims to reduce smoking prevalence further to less than 12% by the end of 2022 [4]. The prevalence of successful quit attempts (defined as reporting still not smoking after a quit attempt made at some point within the past 12 months) has increased, varying around approximately 14% between 2007 and 2011 and approximately 17.5% thereafter In order to inform and evaluate policy decisions to maintain or accelerate this increasing trend, it is important to track the success rate of quit attempts over time and identify factors that are associated with successful quit attempts at a population
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
