Population-based study and a scoping review for the epidemiology and seasonality in and effect of weather on Bell\u2019s palsy

Abstract

The association between weather-related variables or seasons and the development of Bell’s palsy (BP) is controversial. This study aimed to evaluate the incidence and clinical characteristics of BP and assess the effects of meteorological factors on seasonal and monthly incidence. This retrospective population-based study used data from the Korean Health Insurance claims database (NHICD) from 2010 to 2018, in which annual, seasonal, and monthly incidence rates and age and sex distributions were calculated. A multivariate linear regression and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to determine the association between the seasonal and monthly incidence of BP and meteorological factors, including average wind speed, temperature, relative humidity, and atmospheric pressure. We also conducted a scoping review of the literature on epidemiological and seasonality studies of BP in the past 30 years and summarized them in a table for easy comparison with other studies. In this study, the incidence rate of BP increased over 9 years (from 12.86 to 19.92 per 100,000 persons) and was the highest in patients in their 60s (31.6/100,000 persons). The seasonal incidence of BP was the highest in autumn and showed a significant difference compared with spring (coefficient − 0.318, p = 0.003) and summer (coefficient − 0.463, p < 0.001), adjusting the year. In the ARIMA analysis, the autocorrelation of the monthly and seasonal lag in the raw data disappeared after adjustment of the seasonal (or monthly) and longitudinal changes, indicating no additional trends outside the seasonal (or monthly) longitudinal changes. The seasonal and monthly incidence of BP was related to low temperature (p = 0.002), high atmospheric pressure (p = 0.034), and low relative humidity (p < 0.001) in the multivariate linear regression. In contrast, in the ARIMA analysis, after adjusting for seasonality, month, and trends, there were no significant meteorological factors associated with the monthly or seasonal incidence rate. In the past 30 years, 12 studies have reported on the prevalence or incidence of BP, and 14 have reported on the relationship between seasons, weather, and incidence. These results indicate that BP is more common among the elderly, and the incidence of BP is increasing due to an aging society, increased medical accessibility, and lifestyle changes. The data also indicate that the onset of BP is associated with low temperature and humidity; however, in the climate zone with extreme temperature and humidity differences between the coldest and hottest months, it is assumed that the marked decrease in temperature (autumn) has more influence on the outbreak of BP than does the actual cold temperature (winter).