Population vulnerability assessment based on scenario simulation of rainstorm-induced waterlogging: a case study of Xuhui District, Shanghai City

Abstract

Waterlogging is one of the most serious hazards in cities. People are the core of the human social system and the main group affected by disasters. This research introduces a method of scenario simulation which provides a basis for the accurate measurement of exposure to waterlogging. Then based on the concept and structure of vulnerability, representative indicators are selected to develop an indicator system based on objective weights derived from principal components analysis. The method is then used to conduct a population vulnerability assessment in Xuhui District of Shanghai city based on scenario simulation of rainstorm-induced waterlogging over a 50-year period. The final assessment results show that the population vulnerability is greatest for Tianlin Street, Lingyun Street, Changqiao Street, Fenglin Street, and Caohejing Street, while Tianping Street, Xujiahui Street, and Xietulu Street have medium levels of vulnerability. Hongmei Road Street, Healthy Village Street, Longhua Street, and Hunan Road Street have low levels of vulnerability, and Huajing Town is the area with the lowest population vulnerability. The results provide both necessary information and guidance for the government to improve the flood management.