Population trends in regular migrants as the basis for a prediction model for conservation of the birds of Eurasia

Abstract

The results of censuses taken in 1995 to 2011 along two key routes in the areas of the Sulakskaya and Turalinskaya Lagoons, Dagestan (the western coast of the Middle Caspian Sea), are summarized. The state of the populations of regularly migrating birds and causes of long-term fluctuations in their abundance have been assessed by the method of long-term series of observations on trajectories of active migration along stationary routes. The results show that the abundance of 46 out of the 116 background taxa has decreased, while that of 70 taxa has increased or remained unchanged. The key regulatory factors include hydroclimatic conditions, anthropogenic impact, food supply, synurbanization, and weather. The results provide a basis for developing a unified strategy for the conservation of the birds of Eurasia.