Population Size Estimation Methods: Searching for the Holy Grail.

Joyce J Neal,Wolfgang Hladik,Travis Sanchez,Dimitri Prybylski

doi:10.2196/25076

Abstract

Accurate size estimates of key populations (eg, sex workers, people who inject drugs, transgender people, and men who have sex with men) can help to ensure adequate availability of services to prevent or treat HIV infection; inform HIV response planning, target setting, and resource allocation; and provide data for monitoring and evaluating program outcomes and impact. A gold standard method for population size estimation does not exist, but quality of estimates could be improved by using empirical methods, multiple data sources, and sound statistical concepts. To highlight such methods, a special collection of papers in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance has been released under the title “Key Population Size Estimations.” We provide a summary of these papers to highlight advances in the use of empirical methods and call attention to persistent gaps in information.

Highlights

Most new HIV infections in 2019 were estimated to have occurred among key populations (KP), including sex workers, people who inject drugs (PWID), transgender people, and men who have sex with men (MSM), as well as their partners [1]
UNAIDS and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have worked to compile data from population size estimation (PSE) conducted as standalone studies or as part of biobehavioral surveys (BBS) [2,5,6]
Focused on application of empirical methods, a special collection of papers in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance has been released under the title “Key Population Size Estimations” [11]

Summary

Introduction

Most new HIV infections in 2019 were estimated to have occurred among key populations (KP), including sex workers, people who inject drugs (PWID), transgender people, and men who have sex with men (MSM), as well as their partners [1]. These 9 reports on empirically based PSE include innovative approaches, such as use of social media apps (Vietnam) [12], a reverse-tracking method (Namibia) [13], multiple-source capture-recapture (CRC; Uganda) [14], and successive sampling (SS)-PSE incorporating imputed visibility [15].

Results

Conclusion