Population Shrinkage, Public Service Levels, and Heterogeneity in Resource-Based Cities: Case Study of 112 Cities in China

Abstract

Resource-based cities (RBCs) have become an important part of shrinking cities, and their population shrinkage brings many challenges for RBCs. A lot of literature analyzes the effects of shrinkage in RBCs, but very few explore the impact of population shrinkage on changes in their public service levels (PSLs). How the population shrinkage affects public services in RBCs, whether it is heterogeneous concerning the degree of shrinkage, and what the policy implications are all need to be studied in this paper. We propose the criteria for defining population shrinkage grades in terms of population size, population proportion, and population reduction rate, and we define the shrinkage grades of 112 RBCs. We select 12 indicators to build an index system to measure the PSLs of China’s RBCs, define the shrinkage grades of 112 RBCs, measure their PSLs, and analyze the impact of population shrinkage on the public services in China’s RBCs. The results show that there is a positive correlation between the rate of population reduction (pr) and the increased range of PSLs (PSLIR). The population shrinkage generally contributes to the improvement of PSLs in RBCs, but the effect is heterogeneous among the different shrinkage grades. In cities with population growth, it inhibits the improvement of PSLs, while in cities with population shrinkage, it promotes the improvement of PSLs. This promotion effect is phased and can only occur in the early stages of population shrinkage. The results also reveal the effects of the control variables on the PSLs of all the RBCs, as well as the RBCs with different shrinkage grades. These results can provide a reference for the sustainable development of RBCs.