Population Pressure and the Food Supply System in the Developing World

Abstract

WHETHER FOOD PRODUCnON can keep pace with the demand for improved diets for a rapidly growing world population is a question that has been debated vigorously since it was raised by Malthus two centuries ago (Malthus 1959 [1798]). Although much of mankind has experienced improvements in diets over the past century, expert views about prospects for the coming decades differ as sharply as ever.' Pessimists point to the many signs of environmental stress and the increasing difficulties encountered in expanding agricultural land, water supply, and crop yields, and in controlling pests (Brown and Kane 1994; Ehrlich and Ehrlich 1990; Ehrlich, Ehrlich, and Daily 1993). In their view a large expansion of agricultural output is not feasible, and they even doubt whether current levels of crop production can be sustained in a number of countries. In contrast, optimists note the relatively low crop yields, inefficiencies throughout the food production and consumption chain, and the ample reserves of potential arable land in many developing countries (Heilig 1994; Johnson 1984; Simon 1981; Smil 1987, 1994). Sounder government policies, wider application of green revolution technology, reduced inefficiencies, upgraded rural infrastructure, and greater investments in human resources and research will make much larger harvests possible, they claim, and no insurmountable environmental constraints are foreseen. Despite this disagreement about the difficulties ahead, there is little dispute about trends in the demand for food over the coming decades. The United Nations (1995) projects a world population of 9.8 billion in 2050, up from 5.8 billion today. For improvements in diets in much of the developing world also to occur, as is expected, an enormous expansion of agricultural output will be needed in the next few decades. Meeting this de-