Abstract
Like most countries worldwide, the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has adversely affected Ireland. The aim of this study was to (i) investigate the spatio-temporal trend of COVID-19 incidence; (ii) describe mobility trends as measured by aggregated mobile phone records; and (iii) investigate the association between deprivation index, population density and COVID-19 cases while accounting for spatial and temporal correlation. Standardised incidence ratios of cases were calculated and mapped at a high spatial resolution (electoral division level) over time. Trends in the percentage change in mobility compared to a pre-COVID-19 period were plotted to investigate the impact of lockdown restrictions. We implemented a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model (Besag, York and Mollié (BYM)), commonly used for disease mapping, to investigate the association between covariates and the number of cases. There have been three distinct “waves” of COVID-19 cases in Ireland to date. Lockdown restrictions led to a substantial reduction in human movement, particularly during the 1st and 3rd wave. Despite adjustment for population density (incidence ratio (IR) = 1.985 (1.915–2.058)) and the average number of persons per room (IR = 10.411 (5.264–22.533)), we found an association between deprivation index and COVID-19 incidence (IR = 1.210 (CI: 1.077–1.357) for the most deprived quintile compared to the least deprived). There is a large range of spatial heterogeneity in COVID-19 cases in Ireland. The methods presented can be used to explore locally intensive surveillance with the possibility of localised lockdown measures to curb the transmission of infection, while keeping other, low-incidence areas open. Our results suggest that prioritising densely populated deprived areas (that are at increased risk of comorbidities) during vaccination rollout may capture people that are at risk of infection and, potentially, also those at increased risk of hospitalisation.
Highlights
IntroductionCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19, due to infection by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)), which was first detected in Wuhan, China, in late 2019 has rapidly evolved from an epidemic to a pandemic within an extremely short timeframe [1]
The distribution of the overall incidence of new cases in Ireland over time is presented in Figure 1 along with some key lockdown dates introduced during the pandemic in Ireland
We found an association between population density, the average number of persons per room and deprivation index, and COVID-19 incidence
Summary
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19, due to infection by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)), which was first detected in Wuhan, China, in late 2019 has rapidly evolved from an epidemic to a pandemic within an extremely short timeframe [1]. The highly infectious disease has, as of 7 April 2021, resulted in an estimated. 132 million cases and 2,875,514 deaths globally [2]. Transmission of infection mainly occurs via the respiratory route (respiratory droplets, aerosols) during close contact with an infected person, but can occur during direct contact with contaminated surfaces. The virus can remain in aerosols for up to three hours, on cardboard up to 24 h and on plastics and stainless-steel surfaces for up to three days, with the primary method of transmission
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