Abstract
Around 14% of world dengue virus (DENV) cases occur in the Americas, most of them in Brazil. While socioeconomic, environmental, and behavioral correlates have been analyzed thoroughly, the role played by population mobility on DENV epidemics, especially at the local level, remains scarce. This study assesses whether the daily pattern of population mobility is associated with DENV incidence in Campinas, a Brazilian major city with over 1.2 million inhabitants in São Paulo State. DENV notifications from 2007 to 2015 were geocoded at street level (n = 114,884) and combined with sociodemographic and environmental data from the 2010 population census. Population mobility was extracted from the Origin-Destination Survey (ODS), carried out in 2011, and daily precipitation was obtained from satellite imagery. Multivariate zero-inflated negative binomial regression models were applied. High population mobility presented a relevant positive effect on higher risk for DENV incidence. High income and residence in apartments were found to be protective characteristics against the disease, while unpaved streets, number of strategic points (such as scrapyards and tire repair shops), and precipitation were consistently risk factors.
Highlights
Despite the growing concern about other infectious diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti, such as Zika virus and chikungunya, dengue virus (DENV) remains a global threat [1,2]
This study investigates whether the daily pattern of population mobility associates with DENV transmission in Campinas
Our results showed that population mobility stood as a relevant correlate of dengue incidence, regardless of model specification
Summary
Despite the growing concern about other infectious diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti, such as Zika virus and chikungunya, dengue virus (DENV) remains a global threat [1,2]. The incidence of this disease has grown dramatically in recent decades. In 2016, more than 3.1 million DENV cases were reported in the Americas, more than 70% of them in Brazil 5. The reintroduction of DENV in Brazil occurred at the beginning of the 1980s, at the Northern state of Amapá 8. The disease has grown from an incidence rate close to 0 in 1985 to more than 735 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 2019 9,10
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