Population level SARS-CoV-2 fecal shedding rates determined via wastewater-based epidemiology

Abstract

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been utilized as an early warning tool to anticipate disease outbreaks, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, COVID-19 disease models built from wastewater-collected data have been limited by the complexities involved in estimating SARS-CoV-2 fecal shedding rates. In this study, wastewater from six municipalities in Arizona and Florida with distinct demographics were monitored for SARS-CoV-2 RNA between September 2020 and December 2021. Virus concentrations with corresponding clinical case counts were utilized to estimate community-wide fecal shedding rates that encompassed all infected individuals. Analyses suggest that average SARS-CoV-2 RNA fecal shedding rates typically occurred within a consistent range (7.53–9.29 log10 gc/g-feces); and yet, were unique to each community and influenced by population demographics. Age, ethnicity, and socio-economic factors may have influenced shedding rates. Interestingly, populations with median age between 30 and 39 had the greatest fecal shedding rates. Additionally, rates remained relatively constant throughout the pandemic provided conditions related to vaccination and variants were unchanged. Rates significantly increased in some communities when the Delta variant became predominant. Findings in this study suggest that community-specific shedding rates may be appropriate in model development relating wastewater virus concentrations to clinical case counts.