Population-Level Impact of the Bivalent, Quadrivalent, and Nonavalent Human Papillomavirus Vaccines: A Model–Based Analysis

Abstract

Bivalent and quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines are now licensed in several countries. Furthermore, clinical trials examining the efficacy of a nonavalent vaccine are underway. We aimed to compare the potential population-level effectiveness of the bivalent, quadrivalent, and candidate nonavalent HPV vaccines. We developed an individual-based, transmission-dynamic model of HPV infection and disease in a population stratified by age, gender, sexual activity, and screening behavior. The model was calibrated to highly stratified sexual behavior, HPV epidemiology, and cervical screening data from Canada. Under base case assumptions, vaccinating 12-year-old girls (70% coverage) with the bivalent (quadrivalent) vaccine is predicted to reduce the cumulative incidence of anogenital warts (AGWs) by 0.0% (72.1%), diagnosed cervical intraepithelial neoplasia lesions 2 and 3 (CIN2 and -3) by 51.0% (46.1%), and cervical squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) by 31.9% (30.5%), over 70 years. Changing from a bivalent (quadrivalent) to a nonavalent vaccine is predicted to reduce the cumulative number of AGW episodes by an additional 66.7% (0.0%), CIN2 and -3 episodes by an additional 9.3% (12.5%), and SCC cases by an additional 4.8% (6.6%) over 70 years. Differences in predicted population-level effectiveness between the vaccines were most sensitive to duration of protection and the time horizon of analysis. The vaccines produced similar effectiveness at preventing noncervical HPV-related cancers. The bivalent vaccine is expected to be slightly more effective at preventing CIN2 and -3 and SCC in the longer term, whereas the quadrivalent vaccine is expected to substantially reduce AGW cases shortly after the start of vaccination programs. Switching to a nonavalent vaccine has the potential to further reduce precancerous lesions and cervical cancer.