Population Growth: Current Issues and Strategies

Abstract

The world population was 4.5 billion in 1981; it will be 6.1 billion in the year 2000 and probably over 9 billion by 2050; most of the worlds population will be concentrated in Africa Latin America and Asia. Even if the overall worlds growth rate is probably as low as 1.7% due to fertility decrease in all developing countries the yearly absolute increase in population is continuing to rise. The worlds birth rate is currently around 28/1000 and death rate around 11/1000 or a life expectancy at birth of 58 years. Under the conditions existing in most poor countries rapid population growth slows the absorption of the population into the modern high-productivity economy hinders a countrys capacity to cope effectively with changes in natural or economic environments and generally constricts development. Rapid population growth imposes obvious costs in investment needed to maintain capital per head at the expense of labor productivity; in addition to draining off investment to train the expanding labor force rapid population growth imposes considerable new organizational demands on society. Brazil and China offer clear examples of extremes of economic-demographic strategy the 1st achieving substantial fertility decline by vigorous promotion of state and private capitalism and pronatalist or laissez-faire attitudes toward population growth the 2nd by direct government pressures through antinatalist campaigns facilitated by an effective health care system. Between the 2 extremes are the examples of South Korea and Taiwan which were able to continue rapid economic growth with a pattern of social organization promoting mortality and fertility declines the growth of manufactured exports and a well trained labor force; or the example of Sri Lanka and Kerala which were able to reach low rates of mortality and fertility without any apparent stimulus from an economy and without a strong political and administrative system. The conclusions are that rapid economic growth generates fertility decline irrespective of population policy and that there are combinations of patterns of social organization and government programs that foster lower fertility even without much economic growth. Whenever population policies are to be made they demand a strategy based on thorough local analysis.