Population growth and global CO 2 emissions : A secular perspective

Abstract

Considerable scientific effort has been applied to the question of whether worldwide fossil fuel combustion and the resultant emission of CO 2 (as well as emissions of other greenhouse gases) will cause a discernible enhancement of the greenhouse effect in the next century. A more precise understanding of the contribution of human activity to potential global warming ( vis-à-vis natural climatic variability) is of critical policy interest. Surprisingly little research has been devoted to establishing the underlying statistical relationship between human activities and CO 2 emissions. In this paper, we explore the nature of the relationship between global population growth and CO 2 emissions by employing the test of causality developed by Granger on annual data for 1880–1989, as well as more comprehensive error correction and cointegration models. The results suggest a lack of a long-term equilibrium relationship, but imply a short-term dynamic relationship from CO 2 to population growth.