Population Growth and Food Production: Recent Global and Regional Trends

Abstract

Per capita cereal production has declined in North America Oceania and Latin America in the past 10 years. In sub-Saharan Africa drought and rapid population growth accounted for the slight decline in cereal production per capita. Increases have been experienced recently in North Africa and West Asia. Even Latin America showed increases if Argentina is excluded. Access to food supply may account for the UN Food and Agriculture Organizations estimate of about 15% malnourished globally. Global trends show that between 1951 and 1992 rice wheat and coarse grain (cereals) production increased but varied annually. The increase was from 290 kg in the early 1950s to 371 kg in 1984 a peak year with declines to 355 kg in 1990. Regional trends showed peaks in Africa in 1967 and a decline of 25% by 1990. In Eastern Europe and the former USSR declines were 8%. In Latin America and North America the peaks were in 1981-82 and declines of maybe 4% occurred by 1990. Europe peaked in 1984 and declined by 9% by 1990. The traditional cereal exporting countries are North America and Oceania (US Canada and Australia). These countries account for 20% of the cereal production and 6% of the population. During the 1980s in the US cropland for cereal production declined by 12%. Latin American declines were attributed to population growth land degradation and the effects of the debt crisis. Argentina accounted for 25% of regional production and experienced a 40% decline in cereal exports. North Africa and West Asia imported about 33% of cereals which were primarily fed to livestock. In sub-Saharan Africa which has had droughts and civil unrest it is uncertain whether the high food aid has contributed to the failure of domestic production. Overvalued exchange rates poor transportation marketing storage and support services account for some of the regions food supply problems. Low export prices have had an effect worldwide. Cereal production in South Southeast and East Asia has been strong and the deficits in China around 1959 to 1964 and in India during 1965 and 1966 are not likely to reappear. The USSR benefited from low world prices and doubled the volume of imports by 8% between 1981 and 1992. Cereals account for about 50% of total human caloric intake. About 3% of declines in world harvests of cereals between 1981 and 1992 were due to a change in crop. The general conclusion was that food production was in line with population growth.