Abstract
For the sustainable development of a country or a city, it is important to know the accurate idea of the population of that region. The local authorities can easily implement their various development plans if they know the future scenario of the population. This study aims to forecast the population of Sylhet City Corporation, which was transformed into a city corporation 20 years ago. Three frequently used and popular methods of population forecasting Arithmetic Increase Method, Geometric Increase Method, and Incremental Increment Method are used to forecast the population. Population data from 2001 to 2015 are used to train and data from 2016 to 2021 are used to verify the methods. The average percentage of error of these three methods is about 3%. Among the three methods, the Geometric Increase Method provides the best result with a percentage of error of 0.15655%.
Highlights
Bangladesh is a populous country with a high density of population
Geometric increase method forecasted with average error 0.15655%
Three popular population forecasting methods were used to predict the population of Sylhet City Corporation
Summary
The north-eastern part of Bangladesh, is a rapidly growing city. Knowing the type of population growth in Sylhet or what the population might be in the future will help policymakers to make decisions. Sylhet is the most earthquake-prone area of Bangladesh. Ara (2014) analyzed the impact of the sequential distribution of the population living in an earthquake-prone area to realize a pragmatic assessment. Kabir and Chowdhury (1982) inspected the connection between growth rate and food production in Bangladesh. Hoque et al(1995) estimated the future population of Bangladesh. Mallick (1980) investigated the population trend in Bangladesh and predicted that the growth rate will be zero in the hundred years was very impractical. Exponential growth models and models utilizing a Markov chain were developed by Beekman (1984) to reflect lower birth rates caused by rural-urban movement. Rahman (1993) used the formula ( )
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