Population dynamics of mangrove Avicennia bicolor on the Pacific coast of Costa Rica

Abstract

Deterministic and stochastic class structured population models were used to simulate the life cycle of Avicennia bicolor of the Pacific coast of Costa Rica. The models were based on an extensive data set collected during a 6 year period in a 0.52 ha plot of monospecific A. bicolor. This data set included density, growth, mortality and transition rates of seedlings, saplings and trees of eight different diameter classes, as well as propagule production for the reproductive tree classes. Model simulations carried out over a 100 year period indicated a stable size class structure of the forest. Sensitivity analysis showed a significantly greater sensitivity of the model population to simulated changes in the mortality of seedlings, in comparison with the mortality of saplings and trees. An increase of 1% in the mortality of seedlings, for example, was sufficient to cause significant changes in the density of individual size classes. In contrast, neither a 10% increase in the mortality of saplings and trees nor a 20% decrease in the propagule production of fecund trees significantly affected the overall forest structure.