Population dynamics in the context of environmental vulnerability: comparison of the Mekong, Ganges-Brahmaputra and Amazon delta regions

Abstract

Tropical delta regions experience complex population dynamics, which are strongly influenced by socio-economic and environmental factors. They are subject to increasing pressure from relative sea-level rise, and because of human alterations they are becoming more and more vulnerable to extreme floods, storms, surges, and salinity intrusion, hazards which could also increase in magnitude and frequency with a changing climate. In this context, understanding population dynamics in delta regions is crucial for ensuring efficient policy planning and progress towards social and ecological sustainability. Here we focus on examining population dynamics in the Ganges-Brahmaputra, Mekong and Amazon deltas. Analysis of the components of population change is undertaken in the context of environmental factors affecting the demographic landscape of the three regions, and makes use of multiple data sources, including census data and Demographic and Health Surveys. The results of the analysis show that the demographic trends in the three delta regions are broadly reflective of national trends, although important differences exist within and across the study areas. Moreover, our findings show that all three delta regions have been experiencing shifts in population structures resulting in aging populations, the latter being most rapid in the Mekong delta. The environmental impacts on the different components of population change are important and more extensive research is required to effectively quantify the underlying relationships. The study concludes by discussing selected policy implications in the context of sustainable development of delta regions and beyond.