Population dynamics and threats to an apex predator outside protected areas: implications for carnivore management.

Samual T Williams,Russell A Hill,Kathryn S Williams,Bradley P Lewis

doi:10.1098/rsos.161090

Abstract

Data on the population dynamics and threats to large carnivores are vital to conservation efforts, but these are hampered by a paucity of studies. For some species, such as the leopard (Panthera pardus), there is such uncertainty in population trends that leopard trophy hunting has been banned in South Africa since 2016 while further data on leopard abundance are collected. We present one of the first assessments of leopard population dynamics, and identify the key threats to a population of leopards outside of protected areas in South Africa. We conducted a long-term trap survey between 2012 and 2016 in the Soutpansberg Mountains, and drew on a previous estimate of leopard population density for the region from 2008. In 24 sampling periods, we estimated the population density and assessed population structure. We fitted eight leopards with GPS collars to assess threats to the population. Leopard population density declined by 66%, from 10.73 to 3.65 leopards per 100 km2 in 2008 and 2016, respectively. Collared leopards had a high mortality rate, which appeared to be due to illegal human activity. While improving the management of trophy hunting is important, we suggest that mitigating human–wildlife conflict could have a bigger impact on carnivore conservation.

Highlights

Large mammalian carnivores are incredibly important to ecosystems and environments
Carnivores frequently come into conflict with humans [13,14], and anthropogenic threats such as persecution [15], loss of habitat and decline in prey base [16] have led to massive population declines and range contractions for most large carnivores [17]
We present the first estimates of trends in leopard population density and abundance in the Soutpansberg Mountains as a case study to inform future research and management focusing on large carnivore population dynamics

Summary

Introduction

The extirpation of carnivores can trigger trophic cascades that can reduce biodiversity [1], increase the transmission of infectious diseases to humans [2], increase crop damage [3], reduce carbon sequestration [4] and even modify river morphology [5]. People tell stories about large carnivores in traditional fables, their likenesses inspire artwork, they play roles in witchcraft, and their products are used in traditional rituals and medicine [10] Despite their value, 59% of large carnivores are threatened with extinction [11], and this will be exacerbated as humans continue to modify the environment [12]. Carnivores frequently come into conflict with humans [13,14], and anthropogenic threats such as persecution [15], loss of habitat and decline in prey base [16] have led to massive population declines and range contractions for most large carnivores [17]

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion