Population Development Under Different Family Planning Policies

Abstract

China’s family planning policy has frequently been adjusted over the past few years by proposed innovative reforms in response to various population crises. In 2016, a two-child family planning policy was implemented with the aims of increasing the total fertility rate and relieving population ageing. Thus, there is an urgent need to test the effects of the new two-child policy. A system dynamics model is established on the basis of Song Jian’s population development equation, and simulation experiments are conducted to test the new family planning policy. The results show that the total population will peak at 1.448 billion in 2022 and will decrease to 0.961 billion by 2050 under the regulation of the new family planning policy. Essentially, however, population structure problems can only be moderately optimized; they cannot be fully resolved. According to the comparative analyses of three different possible family planning policies, the two-child policy is found to be reasonable for contemporary China. This chapter also predicts the population development in Jiangxi Province under the three different possible family planning policies and finds significantly different population challenges in Jiangxi Province and China as a whole. Finally, a sensitivity analysis of the willingness of fertile women to have a second baby is conducted. Some specific measures are proposed as important suggestions for family planning policy tracking.