Population density, urban centrality, and agricultural intensification in Jordan

Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between population growth, agricultural production, and urban development. Ongoing debate in the literature regarding the relationship between population and economic development is restricted by the limited availability of time series data and the difficulty of evaluating causality using cross-sectional data. This analysis uses the special case of Jordan with its massive refugee flows to evaluate the influence of a sudden and exogenous change in population in urban areas on the intensification of agricultural production. Spearman Rank Order correlations are calculated from time series data to show that the districts which experienced the most rapid population growth and increases in population density also exhibited the largest increases in agricultural intensity. Cross-sectional analysis in which measures of agricultural intensification were predicted by population density and urbanization factors reveals a significant interaction between density and urban centrality, where ‘centrality’ is an indicator of the accessibility of urban goods to rural communities. The results suggest that population density has a strongly positive effect on agricultural intensity in areas with few urban goods and services available, whereas the influence of population density on agricultural intensity is substantially reduced in areas with a greater diversity of urban goods and services.