Abstract
The widespread informal settlements in Nairobi have interested many researchers and urban policymakers. Reasonable planning of urban density is the key to sustainable development. By using the spatial population data of 2000, 2010, and 2020, this study aims to explore the changes in population density and spatial patterns of informal settlements in Nairobi. The result of spatial correlation analysis shows that the informal settlements are the centers of population growth and agglomeration and are mostly distributed in the belts of 4 and 8 km from Nairobi’s central business district (CBD). A series of population density models in Nairobi were examined; it showed that the correlation between population density and distance to CBD was positive within a 4 km area, while for areas outside 8 km, they were negatively related. The factors determining population density distribution are also discussed. We argue that where people choose to settle is a decision process between the expected benefits and the cost of living; the informal settlements around the 4-km belt in Nairobi has become the choice for most poor people. This paper ends with suggestions for urban planning and upgrading informal settlements. The findings will increase our understanding of urban population distribution in underdeveloped countries.
Highlights
In the African continent, poverty-related informal settlements are characterized by high population density, low urban services, tenure insecurity, and informal housing, which are very common in large African cities and cities in less-developed countries [1,2,3,4]
Collection and analysis of data related to administrative boundaries, population census, and informal settlements are the key points in this study to demonstrate the spatial distribution of informal settlements and their density and structure in Nairobi
The models we used are as follows: The Clark model: y = aebx. This model was created by Clark in 1951; it is the first exponential function to explain the relationship between urban population density and distance, where y is the population density of a point; x is the linear distance of the point to the city center; a and b are constants, where a represents the population density of the city center [24]
Summary
In the African continent, poverty-related informal settlements are characterized by high population density, low urban services, tenure insecurity, and informal housing, which are very common in large African cities and cities in less-developed countries [1,2,3,4]. The expanding informal settlements have been regarded as a persistent problem in African cities, corresponding with a bad environment, pandemic disease, and community crimes [7,8,9], which are the obvious challenges for realizing the 2030 sustainable goals in Africa. The studies on informal settlements in Nairobi have interested many researchers in the past decades, with studies relating to population growth and migration [22,29,30], health conditions [31,32], residential segregation [21,33], and urban poverty [1,34]. Our focus is on the impact of large-scale informal settlements
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