Population Changes and the Postwar World

Abstract

G REAT changes have occurred and are occurring in the size and distribution of the world's population. These changes are among the more fundamental and predictable determinants of the future. In their larger aspects population trends have shown a great deal of stability in the past and it seems reasonable to suppose that they will continue to do so in the future. They are one of the more certain elements in a most uncertain world. It is the purpose of this paper, first, to make some generalizations about population changes occurring in modem times and, second, to indicate some directions in which they, in association with other social trends, may affect the postwar world. A generation ago, behind every discussion of population problems there loomed the gloomy figure of Malthus. The writings of demography were filled with the dangers of overpopulation. These dangers have not disappeared; in most of the world there is still a heavy pressure of population on developed resources, and the Malthusian controls of famine, disease, and war are still the major checks to population growth. But a different interpretation of population phenomena has become more popular, partly owing to obvious changes in population trends, partly because of a re-evaluation of the relationship between population growth and economic development in the modern world.