Population change in Tanzania 1978-88: a preliminary analysis.

Abstract

The preliminary results of Tanzania's 1988 census disclosed that the average annual rate of population growth decreased from 3.3% during 1967-78 to 2.8%. The growth of Dar es Salaam declined from 7.8% to 4.8% with a total of 1,723,000 people. Tanzania's total population numbered 23,174,336. The economic growth of 4.1% exceeded population growth. The population increased by 37% between 1978 and 1988. 10.1% of the population lived in the 20 largest towns in 1978; this increased to 12.7% in 1988. Population density increased from 20 people/sq km in 1978 to 26 in 1988. High density extended from Dar es Salaam northwest to around Lake Victoria. Many districts with agricultural advantages had a density of 100, and also exhibited signs of population pressure by the 1970s. In 1988 the male:female ratio stayed unchanged with 96 males for 100 females (with extremes of 84.5 and 108). In 16 of 20 towns the ratios were above average, and in 6 towns including Dar es Salaam, Tanga, Arusha, Moshi, Mtwara, and Bukoba, even the urban average of 110 was exceeded. In some towns, females surpassed males as a result of migration to cities to join husbands or make a living in trade or in the informal economic sector. Consequently, the sex ration decrease exceeded 10 points in Mwanza, Arusha, Dodoma, Shinyanga, and Bukoba. The average urban sex ratio decline was only 5 points. The fall of the population growth rate requires the examination of mortality and fertility rates to ascertain the causes.