Population Change and Social Planning: Social and Economic Implications of the Recent Decline in Fertility in the United Kingdom and the Federal Republic of Germany.

Abstract

The primary objective of the investigations described in this volume was the analysis of the fertility decline in the UK and the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) mainly since 1964 as an aid to the identification of policies which might be required to deal with problems arising from a changing population structure. The research was undertaken by 2 teams 1 working in the UK the other in the Federal Republic of Germany. No agreement could be reached as to whether the decline in the total number of births and age specific fertility since 1964 marks the beginning of a movement different in kind rather than in degree from the longterm decline observed for over 100 years. There is also no agreement as to whether the analysis of past events enables reliable projections for the future. According to the explanation adopted either a continuation of low longterm fertility (as measured by the completed family size of women now entering reproduction age) can be foreseen or even further decline; or again a continuation of the slight upward trend observed in the UK since 1977-78 and in the Federal Republic since late in 1979 can be assumed. These uncertainties do not prevent examination in some detail of various areas of social and economic policy. If the view that there have been marked changes in population structure since 1965 which require a policy oriented analysis is taken as a starting point then no claim is made that this is the only change which should be taken into account. The primary reason for examining the problems in 2 different countries is to highlight the importance of examining population changes in the context of a number of related variables. It does not make sense to look at demographic variables except in relation to the size and distribution of national and personal incomes to technological changes to the availability and price of raw materials and energy and such quasi political factors as prevailing views on the proper role of the state in the fields of housing health education and social welfare. The prospects for young entrants to the labor force in the 1980s are quite different in the UK and the FRG regardless of which demographic growth alternative is adopted and regardless of future rates of investment in productive capacity because the 2 economies already differ so much in structure that it would take an unprecedented decline in the German growth rate combined with an equally unprecendented rise in that of the UK to alter the balance of prospects in any fundamental way. The research shows that to a large extent changes in the volume and sector allocation of public resources devoted to the principle areas of public policy have not in the past depended to any large extent on changes in population structure.