Population-Based Estimates and Predictors of Child and Adolescent Linkage to HIV Care or Death in Western Kenya.

Abstract

Population-level estimates of linkage to HIV care among children and adolescents (CAs) can facilitate progress toward 95-95-95 goals. This study was conducted in Bunyala, Chulaimbo, and Teso North subcounties, Western Kenya. Linkage to care was defined among CAs diagnosed with HIV through Academic Model Providing Access to Healthcare (AMPATH)'s home-based counseling and testing initiative (HBCT) by merging HBCT and AMPATH Medical Record System data. Using follow-up data from Bunyala, we examined factors associated with linkage or death, using weighted multinomial logistic regression to account for selection bias from double-sampled visits. Based on the estimated model, we imputed the trajectory for each person in 3 subcounties until a simulated linkage or death occurred or until the end of 8 years when an individual was simulated to be censored. Of 720 CAs in the analytic sample, 68% were between 0 and 9 years and 59% were female. Probability of linkage among CAs in the combined 3 subcounties was 48%-49% at 2 years and 64%-78% at 8 years while probability of death was 13% at 2 years and 19% at 8 years. Single or double orphanhood predicted linkage (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 2.66, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.33 to 5.32) and death (aOR: 9.85 [95% CI: 2.21 to 44.01]). Having a mother known to be HIV-positive also predicted linkage (aOR = 1.94, 95% CI: 0.97 to 3.86) and death (aOR: 14.49, 95% CI: 3.32 to 63.19). HIV testers/counselors should continue to ensure linkage among orphans and CAs with mothers known to be HIV-positive and also to support other CAs to link to HIV care.