Population-based epidemiological projections of rheumatoid arthritis in Germany until 2040

Abstract

Objectives Our aim was to conduct a population-based projection to estimate the number of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) cases in Germany until 2040. Method Data obtained from a report published in 2017 (doi:10.20364/VA-17.08) were used for future prediction analysis. The data were originally collected by the German Central Institute for Statutory Health Insurance. We used the illness–death model to estimate future numbers of RA cases, considering nine possible scenarios based on different incidence and mortality rates. Results In the baseline scenario, the number of women with RA is projected to increase by 417 000 cases and men by 179 000 cases by 2040, compared with 2015. Peak numbers of cases are concentrated in the 70–80-year-old age group, particularly among women. In the most favourable scenario (scenario 2), assuming a decreasing incidence, the total number of RA cases is projected to rise by 284 000 by 2040, reflecting a 38% relative increase from 2015 to 2040. The least favourable scenario (scenario 9), assuming an increasing incidence, projects a significant burden on the healthcare system. The total number of RA cases is expected to rise by 1.16 million by 2040, marking a substantial 158% relative increase from 2015 to 2040. Conclusions Our research emphasizes a discernible trend: with an ageing society, improving treatment effectiveness, and declining all-cause mortality, we anticipate a rise in the absolute numbers of RA cases in Germany in the coming years. Our models robustly support this viewpoint, underscoring impending challenges for healthcare systems. Addressing these challenges demands multifaceted interventions.