Population-Based Analysis of the Impact of Demographics on the Current and Future Blood Supply in the Saarland

Abstract

Background: The federal state of Saarland (SL) is experiencing the fastest demographic change in the western part of Germany. In this study, we analyzed retrospective data on the current and future supply of red blood cell concentrates (RBC) in this region and compared it to the current and future RBC demand in SL hospitals. Methods: The projection of the SL blood supply in 2030 was modeled based on SL demographics for age distribution and donation frequency of donors, and the RBC transfusion data for in-house patients. These results were compared to published data on the transfusion demand from the state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (MV). Results: For the period January 1 to December 31, 2017, a total of 43,205 whole blood donations were collected. The donation frequency in SL never exceeded 80 per 1,000 inhabitants and was well below the numbers in MV. Thirty-one percent of the donors were responsible for 53.5% of the donations, and donors older than 45 years of age contributed highly to the total blood supply. In addition, 40,614 RBC transfusions at 10 SL hospitals were analyzed representing nearly all RBC transfusions for in-house patients in this region. RBC transfusions per 1,000 inhabitants increased with age from 24 (50–54) to 140 (80–84) years. Facing an already existing structural deficit of nearly 8,200 RBC in 2017, the projection predicts a dramatic increase in the regional deficit to >18,300 RBC in 2030. Conclusion: Our results on RBC demand in SL are comparable but not identical to those projected for the region of MV in eastern Germany. Due to the ongoing demographic changes in Germany as a whole, regular regional monitoring of RBC demand and the age structure of blood recipients and donors should be implemented to allow for better strategic planning in blood transfusion services and hospitals.