Population and Vital Phenomena

Abstract

In the short run the war will generate a cyclical movement of vital phenomena in which the birth rate, the rate of natural increase, the rate of populaton growth, the marriage rate, and the divorce rate will pass successively from peak to trough to peak with preparation for, participation in, and cessation of hostilities. During the cyclical movement of these phenomena, military mortality may be expected to increase greatly and, then, to drop abruptly with the close of the war. The effects of the war on the population to date have demographic scars which will have far-reachin long-run effects on the population of the United States; namely, gaps in the age structure of the nation-"hollow classes"; a surplus of women of marriageableage; an appreciable number of disabled men; and a distorted internal distribution of population produced by hurried preparation for war. These effects, in combination with the disturbance of human motivation, the breaking of the "cake of custom," attendant social unrest, widespread diffusion of contraception, and the uncertainty of the future will probably accelerate the downward trend of fertility and decelerate the rate of national population growth. It may be expected that population problems will be among the major problems of post-war adjustment.