Population and Labour Force Issues for Australia: The Borrie Report Projections in Retrospect

Abstract

This paper evaluates the [Australian] National Population Inquirys First Report (1975) and Supplementary Report (1978) and argues that the methods employed for fertility projections fall short of providing an adequate analysis for the development of social policy in respect of employment policies and migration programmes. Specifically the author argues that the Reports do not seriously address the possibility that fertility might continue to decline below replacement level with consequent implications for womens increasing labour force participation. The likely effects of population structure on future employment/unemployment policies are discussed in [relation to] the increased demand for skilled labour and the decreased demand for unskilled labour in a changing labour market. The major point raised is the dilemma of relying on short-term immigration policies to provide skilled labour at the expense of providing training for the indigenous potential workforce and retraining for women. (EXCERPT)