Population and Food: A Global Perspective

Abstract

THE POPULATION OF THE WORLD, which is more than 4 billion, is growing at the rate of 2% each year. At the present growth rate, world population will be almost 8 billion by the year 2010. The tremendous biotic potential of the human race is clearly a phenomenon of the twentieth century. This century has also witnessed a growing difference in population growth between the developed and the less developed parts of the world. The average rate of population growth in the less developed world is about 2.5% per year, yielding a doubling time of 28 years while that in the developed world is 1.0%, a doubling time of 70 years (Berelson 1974a). In an attempt to explain the difference in population growth rates between the less developed and developed countries, Tabbarah (1971) reports that when parents are confident their offspring will survive to maturity, the number of children they desire declines. The desire for a large family is often determined by the parents' perception of mortality rates among their offspring. In black Africa where the chance of a child's surviving to maturity is 45-65%, the desired family size is 5-15 children, while in North America where the chances of a child's surviving to maturity is 90-95%, the desired family size is 2-4 children (Tabbarah 1971). Thus, in black Africa any attempt to bring about a small family norm may be futile unless infant mortality is reduced. In most less developed countries until a basic standard of living in terms of health and education can be assured, birth rates cannot be effectively reduced. Population growth in the less developed world is undoubtedly a major problem, but the factors which influence this must be understood before hasty solutions are recommended. During the last few years, several less developed countries have demonstrated that significant declines in birth rate can be achieved even at low income levels (Berelson 1974b; Rich 1973). Berelson (1974b) demonstrates that declines of birth rate in the less developed world are associated with the achievement of a certain level of modemization. He measures modernization by per capita gross domestic product, life expectancy at birth and the number of female children in elementary school. Clear evidence of a demographic transition in the Latin American and Caribbean countries has been demonstrated by Oechsli and Kirk (1975).